The confidence people have in their beliefs is not a measure of the qu…

Daniel Kahneman
124 citations
The confidence people have in their beliefs is not a measure of the quality of evidence but of the coherence of the story the mind has managed to construct.
Humanity Thought
22

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A person who has not made peace with his losses is likely to accept gambles that would be unacceptable to him otherwise. ✨ Daniel Kahneman, Amos Tversky (2000). Choices, Values, and Frames, p.41, Cam … ▶
This is the essence of intuitive heuristics: when faced with a difficult question, we often answer an easier one instead, usually without noticing the substitution. ✨ Daniel Kahneman (2011). Thinking … ▶
Economists think about what people ought to do. Psychologists watch what they actually do.
In essence, the optimistic style involves taking credit for successes but little blame for failures. ✨ Daniel Kahneman (2011). Thinking, Fast and Slow, p.299, Macmillan
The conclusion is straightforward : self-control requires attention and effort. ✨ Daniel Kahneman (2011). Thinking, Fast and Slow, p.46, Macmillan

The confidence people have in their beliefs is not a measure of the quality of evidence but of the coherence of the story the mind has managed to construct.

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